Predictions for 2017: Everything is Becoming Digital
A Note from the Analyst
As I look back over the last year and think about the year ahead, I am struck by how many things are changing this year. As I developed this report, I realized there is one theme that brings it all together: digital.
I do not need to explain how technology has infiltrated our lives. We are now constantly connected; we send and receive messages 24 hours a day; and we can view news, video, podcasts, and live streams of information from any device in a coffee shop, standing in line, or even in an airplane. Video, a medium which used to seem expensive and slow, is now becoming the primary form of content on the Internet (and live video is coming fast).
The devices we carry around (which are far more than “smartphones” today) are not only computers and phones—they carry digital sensors which make them smarter and more useful than ever. (The typical smartphone has a GPS, temperature sensor, audio sensor, humidity detector, accelerometer, proximity sensor, camera(s), and some even have altimeters. Soon these devices will listen to our voices for stress, monitor our heartbeats, and possibly even our diets!)
Artificial intelligence (I like to call it “augmented intelligence”) has now become a mainstream technology. Our phones and computers can understand our voice, respond to commands, recommend and solve problems, and, through robotics, automate many jobs we never before thought possible. Oxford University believes 47 percent of today’s jobs will be redefined within 20 years and this does not seem unreasonable at all.
But, while technology is changing jobs and work (I talk about the “future of work” later in this report), the biggest change we see is that new way we manage, lead, and operate our companies. Organizations that thrive in the digital age just act differently, so all of the trends I discuss revolve around learning to “be digital,” not just “do digital.”
What does this mean? Earlier this year, we conducted a study with MIT2 (more than 1,000 business leaders responded) and we found two important things. First, 90 percent of these companies believe their core business is threatened by new digital competitors that are challenging their products and services. Second, 70 percent believe that they do not have the right leadership, skills, or operating models to adapt.
Our Deloitte Human Capital Trends study3, which surveyed more than 7,000 companies in 130 countries, found that 92 percent of companies believe that they are not organized correctly to succeed, while only 14 percent know what this “new organization” looks like. As we describe in that report, the world is moving from a top-down hierarchical model to one of a “network of teams” in which people are iterating and solving problems in a dynamic, agile way. This shift in structure, roles, and careers changes the way we lead, manage, reward, and move people throughout the company. It also pushes us to continuously learn—faster than ever.
In fact, one of the hallmarks of high-performing companies in today’s digital world is the ability to learn fast. Companies today should try new things (often through crowdsourcing4 or hackathons), rapidly deploy new products and services (through the MVP5 or minimally viable product approach), and quickly learn what fails and what works. This fast-moving, customer-centric way of doing business has shifted decision-making to the edges of the company, and involves a new way of thinking about management and HR.
The bottom line to all of our predictions for 2017 is this—technology has not only changed our lives, it has changed our organizations. Let us now dive in to the 11 predictions we see.
Principal and Founder
Bersin by Deloitte
Organizational Design Will Be Challenged Everywhere
• 正式创建小型团队结构； • 从根本上减少工作层级，激励员工努力获取工作成果和不断学习，而不只是追求晋升和不断换工作； • 改变奖励机制奖励团队成功，而不仅仅是奖励个人成功； • 重新设计目标管理，每季度更新调整目标，而不是每年进行调整一次，使目标能够公开、透明地在团队中分享； • 提拔年轻的专业人士进阶领导层，这样他们就能迅速为团队的成功做出贡献； • 教会管理者去管理“项目”而不是管理“人”； • 提为员工提供“职业教练”和“导师”，而不是让“经理”来促进员工成长； • 创造终身学习、探索和讨论的文化，来促进员工创新； • 赞助黑客马拉松及其他协同发展计划，让各级层级人员共同贡献自己的创意； • 实施实时信息管理系统，以便让所有的团队成员都能够受到同一目标的指引。
【KEY POINT】We should break our functional groups into teams—teams that are smaller, flatter, and more empowered—and leaders should focus on hands-on leadership, not leadership from behind a desk.
Figure 1: Network of Teams
Case in Point：
One large IT department found that its current functional structure (e.g., application design, infrastructure, security, client service, etc.) had created silos of people who could not be shared among projects. Managers were “hoarding” their teams—and preventing people from being promoted or moved, primarily to protect their positions. Also, leaders considered their jobs sacrosanct because they had “paid their dues,” so to speak, and would not move into new roles.
The CIO, who was facing dozens of new projects that cut across functional teams, totally redesigned the function. Hundreds of people were promoted into team leadership roles; many vice presidents were demoted to team leadership roles; and many technical experts suddenly had teams built around them.
While the redesign was challenging, within only a few months many of the younger, more ambitious leaders rose to the occasion; several of the senior vice presidents resigned; and the CIO found the organization was more engaged, excited, and productive than ever. He realized that no spans-and-layers project would ever have solved this problem—and now is excited to see an agile, “digital” organization emerge, one with more leaders, more empowerment, and much faster time to market.
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